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FKZ: 01LC1821A-E
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work package 5

Model-based exploration of management options


This work package will use an agent-based modelling approach to explore the dynamics of local rangeland SESs, to understand the drivers and mechanisms that lead to a DTP, and to identify early-warning-indicators and suitable management interventions in the face of looming DTPs. To this end, work package 5 will integrate qualitative and quantitative results of the empirical work (work packages E1-3 & S1-3) and the interdisciplinary synthesis of work package 4 in an agent-based simulation model. The model will be used to explore the coupled SESs in time and space under different processes of global change. It will be specifically designed to capture feedback processes between ecosystem dynamics and farmers’ management strategies. This will enable us to obtain a mechanistic understanding of the emergence of a DTP (including early-warning indicators), and to assess how livelihoods of farmers are affected under changing system conditions. The model will be used in an exploratory manner to test hypotheses derived by empirical scientists and to support inter- and transdisciplinary communication.

Lead institution:

Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH - UFZ

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